Obama administration plans to keep thousands of troops in Afghanistan for years to come were thrust into doubt on Thursday when Afghan President Hamid Karzai unexpectedly called for delaying a long-term security deal until his successor is elected next spring.
The surprise move, which Mr. Karzai announced in a televised address before a special Afghan council that will advise him on the deal, cast a new cloud of uncertainty over the fate of the security pact. The administration warned that failure to complete the agreement by the end of the year could force the U.S. to pull out of Afghanistan altogether in 2014.
This week, Mr. Karzai during a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of StateJohn Kerry requested a letter from President Barack Obama admitting U.S. "mistakes" in the war and recognizing the suffering inflicted on Afghans by U.S. forces. Mr. Karzai wanted the letter as a condition to dropping his objections to U.S. forces raiding Afghan homes in exceptional circumstances.Mr. Karzai's remarks came less than 24 hours after Afghan and U.S. leaders ironed out a disagreement over the circumstances when U.S. forces could enter Afghan homes, paving the way for a final agreement after a year of contentious negotiations.
Mr. Obama replied with a letter Thursday morning, Mr. Karzai said, but its text—initially released by Kabul—fell far short of the Afghan demands. The letter didn't acknowledge any American mistakes and said the U.S. has redoubled its efforts to ensure that Afghan homes are respected by U.S. forces.
Mr. Obama's letter also raised the "enormous sacrifices" made by American soldiers in Afghanistan and said U.S. troops wouldn't enter Afghan homes unless there is "urgent risk" to U.S. nationals.
Mr. Karzai, in an hour-long address to the Loya Jirga gathering, told Afghan politicians that the "agreement should be signed when the election is conducted, properly and with dignity."
"There is mistrust between me and America," he told the advisory body. "I don't trust them, and they don't trust me."
Both American and Afghan officials expressed surprise at Mr. Karzai's announcement and tried to determine if he was throwing a last-minute wrench in the process, compelling the U.S. to pull all its forces out of Afghanistan—as it did in Iraq in 2011 after a similar deal fell through.
"We need to have that agreement signed by the end of the year," Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters on his plane while en route to Halifax, Nova Scotia, for a security conference.
"Until we have a signed Bilateral Security Agreement that essentially gives us the assurance that we need to go forward, I don't think the president is going to commit to anything," he said. "He said that. And my advice to him would be to not."
At the White House, spokesman Josh Earnest said: "It is important for this security agreement to be approved and signed by the end of this year so that preparations can start being made to plan for the post-2014 presence that the United States may have in Afghanistan."
It wasn't immediately clear whether Mr. Karzai's Pashto-language remarks represented a final policy decision. Reached hours after the speech, Mr. Karzai's spokesman, Aimal Faizi, said that "peace, security and a good election are key to the signing" of the security pact.
A senior Afghan official, however, said Mr. Karzai may reconsider if requested to do so by the Loya Jirga, whose roughly 3,000 delegates are scheduled to deliberate on the deal for three more days. Mr. Karzai approved the list of the assembly's participants; most of them had been selected by provincial authorities.
In his speech, Mr. Karzai didn't direct the delegates to vote in favor of signingthe deal with the U.S., asking only that they do what is in "the best interests of Afghanistan."
U.S. officials pressed for the security agreement to be implemented this month. A lengthy delay, such as the one outlined by Mr. Karzai, almost certainly would derail American and allied plans to maintain a limited training and counterterrorism force in Afghanistan after 2014.
In addition to the future American military mission in Afghanistan, at stake are billions of dollars in economic and military assistance. The Afghan army and police, struggling to contain the Taliban, would likely collapse without this foreign funding.
"If the deal does not go through, the whole support of the international community will be on hold.…Most probably it will discontinue," said Mr. Karzai's former defense minister, Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak, who is a presidential candidate. "We are not a wealthy country like Iraq, which at least can pay its soldiers. The result will be a gradual decline of the state because there is no alternative."
Even close aides to Mr. Karzai said they were stunned by the president's statement, which came toward the end of a nationalistic speech in which he voiced a litany of complaints against the U.S.
"It came as a surprise," said Hedayat Amin Arsala, Mr. Karzai's former vice president who resigned as senior minister in October to run in the presidential election.
In Thursday's speech, Mr. Karzai said that if the Loya Jirga and the Afghan Parliament approve the security deal, the final signature would depend on the outcome of the presidential elections scheduled for April. Alluding to what he previously described as Western interference in the 2009 election, Mr. Karzai said: "We have had our experiences in the past election, and I won't repeat them."
David Sedney, the former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary who oversaw Afghan policy at the Pentagon until May, said the 2009 election had a long-lasting impact on Mr. Karzai's approach to negotiations with the U.S.Mr. Karzai is slated to step down after the vote. Many Afghan politicians, however, believe it is likely to be postponed as he seeks to steer a preferred successor into office.
"He's always been ambivalent about a long-term relationship with the United States because he feels that he's been personally betrayed by the U.S. a number of times," he said.
"In any discussion about contentious issues, he has pulled a surprise out at the last minute to try and prevent something or to try and get additional leverage," said Mr. Sedney, who has spent countless hours with Mr. Karzai over the past decade. "He's trying to get some last-minute leverage for his future. What he cares about is being able to ensure that, after the election, he is given a position of significant power behind the scenes."
Major candidates vying for the president's support include Mr. Karzai's brother Qayum, his former Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul, and former transition adviser Ashraf Ghani. Also running is Mr. Karzai's main challenger in the 2009 election, Abdullah Abdullah. At the time, the United Nations-led electoral watchdog threw out a million votes, mostly cast for Mr. Karzai, as fraudulent, ordering a runoff. Mr. Karzai in the past repeatedly described that decision as a plot by some American officials seeking to oust him.
"He thinks he has been dishonored, and he is trying to give the United States the runaround," said Daoud Sultanzoy, a former lawmaker and TV talk-show host who is one of 11 presidential candidates.
Naheed Farid, a lawmaker from Herat province, condemned Mr. Karzai's suggestion to delay the security deal until after the election as "running against the national interest."
The surprise move, which Mr. Karzai announced in a televised address before a special Afghan council that will advise him on the deal, cast a new cloud of uncertainty over the fate of the security pact. The administration warned that failure to complete the agreement by the end of the year could force the U.S. to pull out of Afghanistan altogether in 2014.
This week, Mr. Karzai during a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of StateJohn Kerry requested a letter from President Barack Obama admitting U.S. "mistakes" in the war and recognizing the suffering inflicted on Afghans by U.S. forces. Mr. Karzai wanted the letter as a condition to dropping his objections to U.S. forces raiding Afghan homes in exceptional circumstances.Mr. Karzai's remarks came less than 24 hours after Afghan and U.S. leaders ironed out a disagreement over the circumstances when U.S. forces could enter Afghan homes, paving the way for a final agreement after a year of contentious negotiations.
Mr. Obama replied with a letter Thursday morning, Mr. Karzai said, but its text—initially released by Kabul—fell far short of the Afghan demands. The letter didn't acknowledge any American mistakes and said the U.S. has redoubled its efforts to ensure that Afghan homes are respected by U.S. forces.
Mr. Obama's letter also raised the "enormous sacrifices" made by American soldiers in Afghanistan and said U.S. troops wouldn't enter Afghan homes unless there is "urgent risk" to U.S. nationals.
Mr. Karzai, in an hour-long address to the Loya Jirga gathering, told Afghan politicians that the "agreement should be signed when the election is conducted, properly and with dignity."
"There is mistrust between me and America," he told the advisory body. "I don't trust them, and they don't trust me."
Both American and Afghan officials expressed surprise at Mr. Karzai's announcement and tried to determine if he was throwing a last-minute wrench in the process, compelling the U.S. to pull all its forces out of Afghanistan—as it did in Iraq in 2011 after a similar deal fell through.
"We need to have that agreement signed by the end of the year," Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel told reporters on his plane while en route to Halifax, Nova Scotia, for a security conference.
"Until we have a signed Bilateral Security Agreement that essentially gives us the assurance that we need to go forward, I don't think the president is going to commit to anything," he said. "He said that. And my advice to him would be to not."
At the White House, spokesman Josh Earnest said: "It is important for this security agreement to be approved and signed by the end of this year so that preparations can start being made to plan for the post-2014 presence that the United States may have in Afghanistan."
It wasn't immediately clear whether Mr. Karzai's Pashto-language remarks represented a final policy decision. Reached hours after the speech, Mr. Karzai's spokesman, Aimal Faizi, said that "peace, security and a good election are key to the signing" of the security pact.
A senior Afghan official, however, said Mr. Karzai may reconsider if requested to do so by the Loya Jirga, whose roughly 3,000 delegates are scheduled to deliberate on the deal for three more days. Mr. Karzai approved the list of the assembly's participants; most of them had been selected by provincial authorities.
In his speech, Mr. Karzai didn't direct the delegates to vote in favor of signingthe deal with the U.S., asking only that they do what is in "the best interests of Afghanistan."
U.S. officials pressed for the security agreement to be implemented this month. A lengthy delay, such as the one outlined by Mr. Karzai, almost certainly would derail American and allied plans to maintain a limited training and counterterrorism force in Afghanistan after 2014.
In addition to the future American military mission in Afghanistan, at stake are billions of dollars in economic and military assistance. The Afghan army and police, struggling to contain the Taliban, would likely collapse without this foreign funding.
"If the deal does not go through, the whole support of the international community will be on hold.…Most probably it will discontinue," said Mr. Karzai's former defense minister, Gen. Abdul Rahim Wardak, who is a presidential candidate. "We are not a wealthy country like Iraq, which at least can pay its soldiers. The result will be a gradual decline of the state because there is no alternative."
Even close aides to Mr. Karzai said they were stunned by the president's statement, which came toward the end of a nationalistic speech in which he voiced a litany of complaints against the U.S.
"It came as a surprise," said Hedayat Amin Arsala, Mr. Karzai's former vice president who resigned as senior minister in October to run in the presidential election.
In Thursday's speech, Mr. Karzai said that if the Loya Jirga and the Afghan Parliament approve the security deal, the final signature would depend on the outcome of the presidential elections scheduled for April. Alluding to what he previously described as Western interference in the 2009 election, Mr. Karzai said: "We have had our experiences in the past election, and I won't repeat them."
David Sedney, the former U.S. deputy assistant defense secretary who oversaw Afghan policy at the Pentagon until May, said the 2009 election had a long-lasting impact on Mr. Karzai's approach to negotiations with the U.S.Mr. Karzai is slated to step down after the vote. Many Afghan politicians, however, believe it is likely to be postponed as he seeks to steer a preferred successor into office.
"He's always been ambivalent about a long-term relationship with the United States because he feels that he's been personally betrayed by the U.S. a number of times," he said.
"In any discussion about contentious issues, he has pulled a surprise out at the last minute to try and prevent something or to try and get additional leverage," said Mr. Sedney, who has spent countless hours with Mr. Karzai over the past decade. "He's trying to get some last-minute leverage for his future. What he cares about is being able to ensure that, after the election, he is given a position of significant power behind the scenes."
Major candidates vying for the president's support include Mr. Karzai's brother Qayum, his former Foreign Minister Zalmai Rassoul, and former transition adviser Ashraf Ghani. Also running is Mr. Karzai's main challenger in the 2009 election, Abdullah Abdullah. At the time, the United Nations-led electoral watchdog threw out a million votes, mostly cast for Mr. Karzai, as fraudulent, ordering a runoff. Mr. Karzai in the past repeatedly described that decision as a plot by some American officials seeking to oust him.
"He thinks he has been dishonored, and he is trying to give the United States the runaround," said Daoud Sultanzoy, a former lawmaker and TV talk-show host who is one of 11 presidential candidates.
Naheed Farid, a lawmaker from Herat province, condemned Mr. Karzai's suggestion to delay the security deal until after the election as "running against the national interest."
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